The Mexico Crisis Explained

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Welcome to WatchMojo, and today we’re taking a deep dive into the recent events that have unfolded in Mexico after the killing of cartel leader Nemesio “El Mencho” Oseguera.

The Raid

The charming Jalisco town of Tapalpa, population under 20,000, became ground zero on Sunday February 22nd, 2026. In the early hours of the morning, Mexican special forces descended on an isolated cabin in the mountainous region. Their target: drug dealer and leader of the Jalisco New Generation Cartel, Nemesio Rubén “El Mencho” Oseguera Cervantes. Authorities had first discovered the notorious fugitive’s location two days earlier after following an associate who had brought Oseguera’s girlfriend to the cabin. The raid began after surveillance confirmed that Oseguera was indeed in the cabin and his girlfriend had left. It was a fierce battle with cartel members reportedly deploying rocket launchers against the special forces operators. El Mencho had tried to flee into the surrounding forests with his bodyguards but was wounded and captured in the melee. He later died while en route to receive medical attention. Seven other cartel members were killed in the raid and two Mexican soldiers wounded. Two other cartel members were arrested, and a significant cache of weapons and armored vehicles was recovered. The operation had been part of a renewed effort by the Mexican government to curb cartel activity and drug smuggling due in part to increased pressure from the Trump Administration. It was carried out by members of the Mexican Army, Air Force, National Guard, and Attorney General’s office. While the US provided support and intelligence, especially the Joint Interagency Task Force-Counter Cartel (JITC-CC), no US personnel were reportedly actively involved in the operation.

The Fugitive

Nemesio Oseguera Cervantes was one of six children born to a poor family in the state of Michoacán. He dropped out of school as a teenager and found work as a guard in the Marijuana fields. In the early 1980s, he immigrated illegally to the United States, settling in California where he was arrested multiple times on theft, drugs, and weapons charges. After a 1992 heroin deal with undercover police officers, Oseguera pled guilty to federal drug charges and spent three years in a Texas prison. He was then deported back to Mexico where he served on a number of police forces in Jalisco before reverting back to organized crime and joining the Milenio cartel. He worked as an assassin and bodyguard for the cartel and married Rosalinda González Valencia, the sister of one of its leaders. In 2009 and 2010, many of the Milenio cartel leaders were arrested or killed leading to a notable power vacuum. The cartel fractured in two with one faction, Los Matas Zetas led by Oseguera, eventually taking control. The group consolidated their power in Western Mexico and re-branded as the Jalisco New Generation Cartel or CJNG. Under his watch, the CJNG became one of Mexico’s most ruthless criminal organizations, responsible for drug smuggling, arms trafficking, torture, and financial crimes. The group had many clashes with Mexican military and law enforcement and became known for sensational and shocking displays of violence and cruelty. El Mencho had been one of the most wanted men in North America and there had been multiple prior attempts to capture him. At the time of the raid, rewards for information leading to his arrest from the US and Mexican governments totaled over $32 million in value.

The Aftermath

The cartel was quick to respond after the raid, plunging Mexico into chaos. Hijacked cars, buses, and cargo trucks were set on fire and used to create 250 roadblocks across 20 states in Western and Central Mexico. Jalisco alone reported 20 active blockades on Sunday the 22nd. The violence caused major disruptions to the national infrastructure with widespread reports of looting and schools canceled in many places in the days following the raid. Most flights out of Puerto Vallarta airport were canceled and bus and rail services in Guadalajara were temporarily suspended. The governments of the US, UK, New Zealand, Canada, and Australia issued shelter-in-place or stay-at-home orders. A 24/7 hotline set up by the US State Department was inundated with calls from frightened tourists trying to re-book their flights or receive assurances. Videos of dozens of arson attacks flooded social media while the smoke billowed over empty streets as people fled the war and looting. Civilians hid in their homes and tourists hunkered down in hotels or wherever else they could stay safe with a thousand people reportedly sheltering overnight in the Guadalajara zoo. 23 inmates escaped from a prison in Puerto Vallarta after armed men rammed the gates. Disinformation on social media with unconfirmed reports that the cartel would round up US citizens or had taken over the airports only added to the fear.

These tactics are not unusual for the cartel and have been used in the past to hinder Mexican law enforcement activity. One high ranking cartel official Hugo César “El Tuli” Macías Ureña had gone as far as offering a MX$ 20,000 ($1165) reward for each soldier killed by cartel operatives. As of February 23rd, clashes between the cartel and law enforcement have led to the deaths of 25 National Guard members, one jail guard, one state prosecutor, and at least one civilian. 34 cartel members, including El Tuli, were killed and 25 were arrested. On February 23rd, Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum honored the fallen military and law enforcement personnel and moved to reassure people that the situation was “under control”.

The Future

It is unclear what will happen next. On Monday the 23rd, President Trump called on Mexico to “step up” its efforts in combating the drug cartels. However, with his son imprisoned in the US, Oseguera Cervantes leaves no obvious heir leading to a potentially protracted conflict between various factions vying for CJNG control. This would only add to the bloodshed caused by the ongoing Sinaloa cartel civil war, ratcheting up the pressure on the Mexican government. Mexico’s status as one of the 2026 FIFA World Cup hosts adds further attention to the situation with FIFA reporting that they are in contact with authorities and closely monitoring the situation. In a statement Tuesday morning Mexican president Claudia Sheinbaum stated that there were “all guarantees” and “no risk” for World Cup attendance. Thousands of troops have already been deployed to Jalisco to help quell the violence.