What If There Was a Space War? | Unveiled

What If There Was a Space War?

When the US president first announced plans to develop a sixth branch of the military to be in charge of operations in space, the proposed American Space Force made headlines around the world. For some it’s something straight out of science fiction, but others believe that the idea isn’t so farfetched. So, if militaries are about to go off-Earth, then what’s next?

This is Unveiled, and today we’re answering the extraordinary question; what if there was a space war?

Ove the course of human history, war has already scaled the ground, sea, and air. Perhaps, then, it’s only a matter of time before we turn space into the next sprawling battlefield. But it isn’t likely to look a lot like the sci-fi stereotype. The term “space war” understandably conjures images of lights, lasers and zapping in and out of hyperdrive, as per “Independence Day” or “Star Wars”. But most scientists believe that a Hollywood-style battle against alien invasion, or an intergalactic fight against an iconic, evil space station is still very unlikely from Earth. After all, according to most industry leaders like Jan Wörner, director general of the European Space Agency, space is meant to be a peaceful frontier. For decades feuding nations have been able to peacefully come together in space to perform operations for the betterment of humanity. And in 1967 the US, UK and USSR even signed the Outer Space Treaty banning the use of nuclear weapons in space. So, if that piece of legislation holds up, then a space war would at least be nuke-free.

What’s more likely is that prospective “space soldiers” wouldn’t be fighter pilots maneuvering high above the atmosphere but would instead be hackers based here on Earth sending cyber-attacks targeted at enemy satellites. It might not be as high-octane as warp speed and laser guns, but cyber-attacks could wield the most devastating blows in a space-based conflict. In the modern world, countries all across the planet heavily rely on space for day to day activities; with TV coverage, internet, and phone service all dependent on satellites. More significantly still, global militaries also use space for almost everything they do. According to Michael Schmitt, professor of Public International Law and a space war expert at the UK’s University of Exeter, modern militaries rely on space across the board; from simple navigation systems to complex spy satellites. And, when discussing America’s reliance on space, Air Force Secretary Heather Wilson reminded that GPS satellites affect everything from equipment used by ground troops in combat to ATMs and apps on our phones. Were warring nations to disrupt these satellites, then, they’d potentially have the power to not only halt an enemy advance on the ground, but also grind to a halt the daily lives for an entire nation.

It’s the levels of reliance we now have on satellite tech that leads figures like Steve Isakowitz, CEO of the US government funded think tank, The Aerospace Corp., to believe that bringing war into space is not just probable but actually unavoidable - with America, Russia and China usually billed as frontrunners. The American Air Force already runs scenarios preparing to defend against cyber-attacks on satellites… and the army specifically trains ground soldiers to adapt in the field for potential attacks to render even their most advanced technology useless. There are similar initiatives being put in place all around the world, too, as various armed forces try to strike a balance between using satellite systems the best ways they can but also being ready were they to one day be hacked and disappear. So, a space war isn’t even all that hypothetical nowadays. World governments are already anticipating that key moments in future wars will play out in space; and our ideas on space and cyber wars are becoming more and more interlinked.

While a space war would most probably develop out of cyber-attacks, however, many countries have also already shown their capacity to develop space weapons, meaning that they also foresee the possibility of a physical combat. Since the 1950s, various nations have mounted research… During the Cold War, America began developing a weapon known as the Rods from God, able to deliver tungsten rods to a designated target on Earth from orbit… and achieving an impact with all the power of a nuclear bomb detonation but with none of the radiation. Also called “Project Thor”, the idea was ultimately shelved because it proved too expensive, but the concept has never truly disappeared. Space analyst and writer Brian Harvey argues that Russian space weapons, too, date back to the early 1960s. While, more recently, one of China’s most significant moves came in 2007, when it started launching test missiles into space to destroy its own defunct satellites. And as recently as 2014, Russia launched another alleged space weapon; one that reports say can manoeuver more quickly than ever before while in orbit.

A space war needn’t always be driven by weapons launched from Earth into the sky, however. Another possibility in terms of a physical conflict in space could be the use of satellites to attack each other. Again, since the 1960s, some of the world’s leading powers have reportedly been working on advanced, weaponized satellites for the specific purpose of a future space conflict. For most onlookers, it is less likely that a space war would happen this way, but the idea of purpose-building whole ships to shoot other ships out of the sky above us does bring us full-circle back to the far-off fantasies of science fiction. And there’s a worst-case-scenario to consider, here; fast-tracking the Kessler Syndrome.

This particular hypothetical predicts just how bad it could get if satellites were to start attacking each other in space. The Kessler Syndrome suggests that a violent space war with satellites crashing into each other would cause so much debris that the orbits of anything circling Earth would become so clogged that it’d become nearly impossible to travel safely through it all. The debris would then continue to collide with more satellites, even the “peaceful” ones, causing a chain reaction of destruction in our sky. And, before long, we have billions of pieces of destroyed satellite dominating our upper atmosphere, perhaps crashing to the ground, and generally ruining our only route off of Earth and into the great beyond. In this case, war would see space turned into a wasteland.

Military experts like ex-US Air Force Officer Brian Weedon, though, have suggested that it’s highly improbable that a space war would ever reach such extreme measures. According to the majority of analysts, space conflict really will most likely stick to cyber-attacks that jam up communications systems. There’s still the potential for massive, even life-threatening disruption, but we’d never quite be at the point of watching the sky burn above us.

The Outer Space Treaty does, in essence, turn space into a neutral zone. So much so that if (or when) conflict arises there, it’ll most likely be more of a cold war - where the threat of mutually assured destruction might actually keep nations at bay. All of these hypotheticals, however, only suggest what may happen if a space war breaks out within Earth’s gravitational field. A deep space battle fighting for the fate of the universe is even more unlikely from our particular vantage point on this planet, but a general space war is no longer just the work of futuristic science fiction. In the real world, many believe it’s an inevitability - with militaries everywhere already preparing for it. A cyber, space war might sound docile in comparison to other forms of battle, but in actuality it could be incredibly debilitating to our way of life. And that’s what will happen if there’s a space war.