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OSCARS 2018 Predictions: Who Will Win, Lose and Get Snubbed? – The CineFiles Ep. 61

VO: Matt Campbell

Written by Matt Campbell The CineFiles Ep. 61

Are you looking for a little extra edge over your competitors in your Oscar Pool? We thought so. We’ve got you covered. Welcome to the CineFiles! A weekly show where we zoom in on the most buzz-worthy news Hollywood and the indie scene has to offer. For this week’s episode, we’re covering a few of the major awards to give a leg up on your Oscar competition.

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Transcript
Written by Matt Campbell

The CineFiles Ep. 61

Are you looking for a little extra edge over your competitors in your Oscar Pool? We thought so. We’ve got you covered. Welcome to the CineFiles! A weekly show where we zoom in on the most buzz-worthy news Hollywood and the indie scene has to offer. For this week’s episode, we’re covering a few of the major awards to give a leg up on your Oscar competition.
Before we begin, we publish new videos every day. So, be sure to subscribe for more great content.

#3: The Actress Categories


The first category we bring you might just be the biggest lock of the show. In the end, it was a battle between the on-screen moms in I, Tonya and Lady Bird. But, come Sunday, Allison Janney’s take as the abusive mother of Tonya Harding is guaranteed to win her the golden statuette. Janney has basically won every single major prize. Place your bets on her. It seems as if everything Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri touches turns to gold this award season, and that very well may be the case for its lead actress, Frances McDormand at this year’s Oscars. While Sally Hawkins’ brilliant silent performance in The Shape of Water garnered the actress rave reviews, and Saoirse Ronan’s honest and relatable take as a teen in Lady Bird both have a small chance at spoiling the fun for McDormand, the odds are just that; small. With wins at the BAFTAs, Golden Globes and SAG Awards, McDormand will win.

#2: The Actor Categories


Some cinephiles were shocked to see The Florida Project get so little love this awards season. Willem Dafoe’s motel manager managed to round up a number of supporting actor nominations however, including one for this year’s big show. But it’s likely that a nomination is as far as he’ll get, as Sam Rockwell’s tremendous performance as a closed-minded racist – whose character arc puts him on a path to redemption – will earn the actor his first ever Academy Award. The firsts will continue in the lead actor category, when Gary Oldman’s name is read from the envelope. The category did however see a refreshing injection of youth amongst the nominees, with Call Me by Your Names Timothee Chalamet and Get Out’s Daniel Kaluuya earning rave reviews for their performances. But, in the end, A career-best performance coupled with the Academy’s love for historical dramas will be too much for the pair to handle. It’ll go to Oldman’s Winston Churchill in Darkest Hour.

Before we get to our final pick, be sure to check out our other predictions:

Best Director:
Will win: Guillermo Del Toro
Could win: Christopher Nolan
Best Adapted Screenplay:

Will win: Call Me by Your Name

Could win: Mudbound

Best Original Screenplay:

Will win: Get Out

Could win: Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

Best Cinematography:

Will win: Roger Deakins

Could win: Hoyte van Hoytema

Best Foreign Film:

Will win: A Fantastic Woman

Could win: The Insult

#1: Best Picture


This one is completely up in the air. The final award of the night is going to come down to three brilliant films: Get Out, The Shape of Water and Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri. Unlike the voting for the other categories - which tabulate the most first place votes - best picture employs a preferential voting system, which aims to award the movie with the broadest support. So basically, with 2nd and 3rd place votes being just as important, it’s anyone’s ball game. Three Billboards is the favorite, landing major victories at the BAFTAs, Golden Globes and most importantly, the best ensemble cast award at the SAG awards. Important because no movie since 1995’s Braveheart has won the Oscar without being nominated for best ensemble. Right there, that presumably knocks out The Shape of Water from contention. This leaves us with Billboards and Get Out, two films that intricately weave social commentary and race relations in America to stunning cinematic effect. As painful as it is to pick only one winner, we have to go with Three Billboards, here. Place your bets on it.
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