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October 22nd, 2006 at 10:32 pm
[…] What’s more, Google currently makes 99.9% of its revenues from paid search. So this all assumes that paid search continues to grow. Of course, paid search is growing, as are other areas of online advertising. Just this past month, Morgan Stanley’s Mary Meeker came out and boasted that the US online ad market would be a $32 billion one by 2010, upping eMarketer’s $25 billion estimate. Mind you, both eMarketer and Mary Meeker have a lot to gain by pumping these numbers, that’s how the system works. And admittedly, I am certainly not drinking the Google koolaid and implying that Google will be making $32 billion in revenues by 2010 or that it will be worth more than Microsoft in 2010, I am trying to show that numbers can be played with. When I’m not writing on this site, I’m busy building a company where interested parties ask me to define the market we’re going after, formulate a valuation for our company and what not, I do it as a fun exercise but am the first one to show how laughable such models are… just as crazy as RBC’s Jordan Rohan to come out and say that MySpace could be worth $15 billion in a few years. The problem is that he’s paid to come up with such models, I’m not. Point is: if Myspace and its social sexual predators can be worth $15 billion, heck, why can’t Google be worth more than MSFT? I’ve argued that Google is well on its way to become the Standard Oil or MSFT-esque monopoly of the 21st Century. […]
October 30th, 2006 at 3:05 pm
[…] If US online advertising becomes a $25 to $32 billion industry (eMarketer projects the former, Morgan Stanley the latter). For simplicity’s sake, we’ll say the US online advertising industry will generate $30 billion in 2010. […]
November 3rd, 2006 at 4:28 pm
[…] I would like to call time-out and point out that this is the first time I’ve seen the $60 billion figure for the US though. I’ve seen eMarketer peg the US ad market at $25 billion while Morgan Stanley pegs it at $32 billion. Regardless, even at half of PWC’s projection for Asia, the “smart people in the room” seem to think that Asia will easily be a market 2 to 3 times larger than the US for online advertising, and they are probably right, when you consider the boom in China, India, South Korea and the entire region (suddenly, all of that ad inventory we have in India seems more and more valuable every day!). […]