
Applying
Put-Call Parity to Everyday Problems
While
business is not rocket science, some would
like to make it seem like it is in order
to justify stratospheric salaries, particularly
finance types.
Marketers seem
to acknowledge that they make too much money
for what they actually do.
The
Black-Scholes options pricing model was
developed in 1973 by Fischer Black and Myron
Scholes. Options are financial instruments
called derivatives because their value is
a function of another security, usually
a stock. The duo’s breakthrough led
to the following put-call parity to help
students make sense of options pricing,
as well as anything else in life. After
all, parity is all about balance. Let's
see how it applies in finance and then relate
it to sports business and how VPs and General
Managers go about deciding when to trade
a player.
Put-call parity states
that:
Call + Cash / (1+Rf)t =
Put + Stock
A call is an option giving
the holder the right, but not the obligation
to buy the underlying security at a given
time at a predetermined price (in the case
of European options, with American options,
the investor can buy anytime before maturity).
A put is an option giving
the holder the right, but not the obligation
to sell the underlying security at a given
time at a predetermined price (in the case
of European options, with American options,
the investor can sell anytime before maturity).
The denominator of (1+Rf)t
refers to discounting the present value
to find what is needed today to eventually
reach the strike price. The strike price
(or exercise price) is the predetermined
price.
Maturity is how long until
the right expires.
Finally, the stock is a
share of the company.
The Black Scholes pricing
model is fairly sophisticated but put-call
parity is fairly straightforward: imagine
two investors, one is an optimist (Bull)
and the other is a pessimist (Bear).
The Bull decides to buy
the stock and ride the wave. But having
taken a couple of finance classes, he realizes
that he should probably hedge himself and
buy the right to sell, locking in some protection
in case something goes wrong.
The Bear figures that cash
is king and decides to wait on the sidelines
with good old fashion cash. But not wanting
to miss out on the next Microsoft, he decides
to invest in a call, giving himself the
right to buy the security.
As you can see, these two
investors have managed to take mirror positions.
The Bull has the stock but can get rid of
it. The Bear is hoarding cash but has given
himself the right to buy. This much we agree,
but why are these positions equal?
The value of the cash is
obvious. The value of both the put and call
are a function of the underlying security:
the stock. If the stock rises, so will the
right to buy (call). If the stock plunges,
so will the call's value. Conversely, if
the stock falls, the put's value rises but
the call's value will sink. This mechanism
must strike equilibrium; otherwise, there
is the potential for a riskless profit,
or arbitrage. However, there is no such
thing as a riskless profit, the risk may
be small, but it will still be present.
The final question is why
is the cash discounted at the risk free
rate, especially if there is no such thing
as a riskless profit? Risk is synonymous
with uncertainty. There is little uncertainty
in cash, so that is one reason. Second,
all of the uncertainty in the values of
the put and the call are a direct function
of the underlying security. This elimination
of added risk means that a "common
denominator" has been attained and
all excess risk avoided. For this reason,
the risk free rate can be used.
Now, how is this applied to the sports world?
Well, consider the stock as an athlete.
The call is the team's right to renew the
athlete's contract, the put is their right
to trade him away. The cash is the amount
they will need to sign him when his contract
expires (European option) or at anytime
before (American option). They only need
the present value of his signing amount
since the cash will compound interest and
reach the athlete's demanded salary (strike
price). VPs
and GMs use this formula implicitly and
to a large extent, we all do too on a daily
basis. So do sports
agents. |