Interesting observation from SAI on comScore’s latest data:
comScore says that major video players like Viacom (VIA), Comcast (CMCSA), Veoh, Disney (DIS) and Yahoo (YHOO) generated fewer views in July than they did the year before. It’s possible that the measurement company’s data is off, which is what Veoh say: It insists that it has grown in the past year and that comScore doesn’t accurately measure the site. (They say the same thing about Nielsen Netratings). But if comScore’s data is at least directionally correct, it’s not a pretty picture:
Fox Interactive: 11%
Yahoo: -31%
Viacom: -12%
Disney: -2%
CBS: 95%
ESPN: -12%
ABC: 156%
Comcast: -34%
DailyMotion: 45%
Veoh: -47%
NBCU: 4%
Now, comScore’s data is occasionally accurate, oftentimes a joke (all measurement services are guilty of that, to be fair; comScore is no better or worse in that scale). However, the underlying premise that YouTube is gaining market share full speed ahead at the expense of these laggards is not wrong. Look at this graph, again courtesy of comScore’s data, but created by SAI:
That’s just for the views part, what about the overall business? I think, as I outlined earlier this year, that there will be a MASSIVE shakeout in the aggregator space. There are way too many out there, with too little to differentiate one another, and thanks to services like TubeMogul, there is not even much of differentiation by way of content… this is where a service like Hulu - backed and owned by NBC and News Corp. - might remain in growth mode, but for all intents and purpose, you will see a shakedown.
Biased as I always am, this is a welcome sign for content owners, however… because less noise coming out of the file sharing sites - who house a lot of user-generated crap - means one thing: good content will rise to the surface.
Of course, you might say: “but Ash, doesn’t YouTube - the world’s biggest video site - house more UGCrap than anyone else?” True, young Jedi… but the difference is that YouTube is clearly trying to showcase professional content and become a friend of traditional media (content owners)… this radical shift in business strategy might not be seen overnight, but as a content provider to YouTube, it’s clearly something that one cannot be unaware of.
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