With the news today that the Federal Government will be bailing out the mortgage giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac - who account for 9 out of 10 mortgages and 50% of the notional amounts of mortgages in the market - you have to wonder, are there any industries within the US economy that are healthy?
Let’s look at some of the pillars of the economy:
1- Finance - as evidenced today - is down and out. The rumored bailout figure is some $200B.
It could be argued that the US Financial machine is now financed and propped up by foreign capital:
- Citigroup sold a 4.9 percent stake to Abu Dhabi’s investment arm
- UBS sold stakes to the Singapore government and an unidentified Middle Eastern investor
- Morgan Stanley sold a 9.9% stake to China Investment Company for $5B
- Merrill Lynch sold a stake to a Singapore fund.
2- Housing is down and out, with the percentage drop off since the peak (30%) being sharper than the drop experienced during the Great Depression (20%, or 24% when adjusted for inflation).
3- The Military machine has profited a few firms but the country’s tab in Iraq alone is nearly $600B. You have to wonder how elastic the military resources really are at this juncture… as evidenced by the US feeble response to Russia’s escapades in Georgia.
4- The Automotive industry - namely Ford and GM - asked Congress for a $50B loan. In fact, the multiplier effect of the automotive industry has always been far more enormous than its direct effects on the economy…
Any way you dice it, the American economy is experiencing shocks from all fronts… at some point, this begs the question, what effects if any will be felt by the high tech and new media industries?
Are there any industries that are really plugging ahead and making up for this steep fall from grace?