Last week I ran down a list of potential acquisition targets for CBS Interactive. I ended up with the conclusion that only CNET would provide a strategic fit with enough leverage. Mind you, with his ability to peer into upcoming trends and opportunities, CBS’ President Quincy Smith is enamored with Web 2.0 (that’s not a knock) and CNET is certainly a tad too Web 1.0 for CBS’ liking.
So who else is out there? Well, how about health pioneer Web MD? Like CNET, the company commands a billion-plus valuation… but unlike CNET (who has been in a rut for ages) Web MD just reduced guidance and its stock got pummeled.
Web MD is now worth $1.47B, with 2007 revenues of $330M, pretty close to CNET’s $400M run rate. Mind you, advertisers love health and health is seen as a growth category; though Web MD’s recent announcement does not suggest that:
WebMD now expects net income for the year between $29.5 million and $37.5 million on revenue of $380 million to $395 million, down from prior estimates for profit of $36.5 million to $46 million on revenue of $395 million to $415 million.
Big, traditional media has so many contacts deep with marketing agencies and F500 advertisers that it can make up for any shortfall new media players see or encounter… but the question remains: is Web MD sexy enough for CBS?
This, after all, is a company:
- that bought Last.fm for a cool $280M,
- whose Interactive President Smith once claimed that he would prefer to own Facebook over CBS (should be taken into the right context) and
- whose CEO Leslie Moonves was a former actor…
I was about to pen something on why and how CBS should focus more on everything and everyone in between Silicon Valley, Hollywood and Madison Avenue if it wants to win on Main Street. This post might sum it up, I say buck the trend and go for substance, after all:
The problem with the so-called sexier W2.0 stuff is that they lack revenue to make a dent in CBS’ eroding business and will continue to lack revenue for years to come.
We shall see. I do know one thing, as unsexy as it might be: by buying both CNET and Web MD, CBS will pay $3B (which is a lot, no doubt) but adding Web MD’s $400M in revenues to CNET’s $400M in revenues to their $200M revenue base for CBS Interactive yields a $1B-a-year-in-revenue franchise.
That’s a mere 3x revenues… and CBS can then add smaller acquisitions to really scale revenues further.
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