Are you kidding me? Here’s what I published earlier this summer (the yellow marks when web surpasses TV):
Here’s eMarketer’s latest numbers:
That’s right, my numbers were conservative. Read more on Tech Crunch or eMarketer.
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WatchMojo NewsletterMichael Eisner has some interesting things to say on the state of online media:
”The fact of the matter is that it’s not easy to write, direct and cast. … How many times can you watch a kid get hit in the groin? YouTube can be indiscriminate about how bad it can be.” There’s still a need for big-pocketed people to find and fund talent. Big companies aren’t going away. Rupert et al aren’t stupid troglodytes. “You’re going to need someone to bring it together. Everybody can’t do it, it is about talent.”
Via PaidContent.org.
I don’t want to speak on behalf of Veoh, a company Eisner invested in. Anyway, I don’t want to speak on behalf of Veoh because it’s one of our distribution partners at WatchMojo.com, but I think because of his involvement in Veoh, he understands that UGC vs. professional content debate better than many, and let’s face it, even YouTube is trying hard to move away from UGC. But connect the dots to something else Eisner said:
“Insanity.” “There’s all of this rhetoric by the media companies about this ‘great new digital business’, which is a small, growing business that will one day be dominant (but it isn’t, yet there’s no money there yet.” Because all of the entertainment folks are talking up digital, the writers assume there’s a lot of money there. Take Prom Queen: “We made history, but we didn’t make money. … I’m doing it because I think it’s fun; I think it’s the future. … For a writer to give up today’s money for a piece in three years is stupid.” The studios can’t give in because there’s nothing to give. “The studios deserve what they’re getting, because they’ve been announcing how great it is.” But it’s only great in theory. ”They made deals with Steve Jobs, who takes them to the cleaners. Who’s making money? Apple.” Entertainment executives can’t admit that they’re not making money. Writers should be striking in Cupertino. (Hard not to see this as a slam on Disney successor Bob Iger, who cut the first video deal with iTunes.)
Well, one reason why there is little money in it now, frankly, is because TV companies are stingy and protective with their content, and high traffic sites like YouTube and Veoh are full of UGCrap, not professional content. That’s one reason why we’ve had a lot of success with those sites, but I tend to agree, unless there is more players like WatchMojo.com, advertisers will be slow to migrate ad budgets online.
Last night I could not be bothered to write about Facebook’s new ad foray.
Frankly, technology news is now equal to hype.
Many tech writers (mainly bloggers) don’t wait to ponder over the significance of news and announcements; in a quest to be the first on a given topic, they are quick to regurgitate press releases and publish hyperbole. I am actually not referring to anyone in particular on this item, just commenting on the general vibe on news announcements made by Google or Facebook recently.
Facebook’s Ad Platform
Yesterday Facebook announced the details of their ad platform. Forget the details for a second, though it was a combination of what we’ve outlined before here and here.
What I was appalled by was how Facebook went about: it was the equivalent of Facebook standing on a soapbox, grabbing a bull horn, whoring it up by telling its users to go f*** off.
Facebook is a great company and has tremendous potential, but its management’s inexperience comes across at least once a year in a blaring manner: last year, it was launching news feeds and not realizing that its users would not all welcome the initiative. This year, it’s more than one: the first one was how it botched the Facebook fund, the second one is now how it handled its ad platform.
Frankly, Facebook’s ad platform might very well be successful, but while Google’s Ad Sense and Ad Words grew into juggernauts over time and in a modest manner, Facebook lost its marbles last night by calling a press conference in the heart of Madison Avenue to brag about just how much it was about to step on users.
Difference between Then and Now
When Google launched Ad Words and Ad Sense, people were somewhat upset that their queries would launch keyword triggered text ads. It was somewhat eerie, but largely anonymous, private and confidential.
Facebook has now gone beyond that and basically sold out its user base. This is what happens when greed forces a company to turn down offers of $800M, $1B, $1.6B, $2.3B and claim a paper valuation of $15B. To justify that, you need to go long, way long. Again, time will tell if this proves successful, I wish them well… but Facebook needs some management lessons in tact and diplomacy.
Hype Is Rarely Ever Met
So am I writing about this today? I learned that one of the most hyped athletes of the 20th century in any sports, Eric Lindros, is calling it quits. For those of you who don’t know who Eric Lindros is, he was one of the most promising junior hockey players to come up, ever. He was dubbed the Next One (in reference to Wayne Gretzky, who was the Great One) and described as a mix of Mario Lemieux and Mark Messier.
For what it’s worth, Lindros had a very successful career: gold medals in the junior Championships and Olympics, as well as winning the NHL’s Hart Trophy in 1995 as the league’s MVP. He scored 372 goals and had 865 points in 760 games for Philadelphia, Toronto, the New York Rangers and Dallas.
Hubris Will Take You Down
But despite all of those impressive feats, Lindros never delivered what was expected of him (admittedly unfairly). He arrogantly maintained that the rules of the amateur draft should not apply to him and refused to sign with the team that signed him.
But what was even more harmful to his career, was not recognizing the limitations of his own potential. Yes, Lindros was big, mean and powerful, but he could not be a one-man wrecking ball and a playmaking scoring machine. In the end, his rugged style made him a target of other tough guys, and the toll on his body wore him out.
Lindros had eight concussions in his career (his brother’s career, too, ended prematurely as a result of head injuries).
Similarities between Lindros and Facebook
Lindros was dubbed the Next One, Zuckerberg, too is dubbed the next Bill Gates (both are Harvard dropouts after all). More importantly, Facebook is growing into the next Google. Facebook might be the sexiest company since Google (well, technically, MySpace) but that is one comparison and lofty expectation that will be really, really, really hard to match.
I wish Lindros well in his retirement, as I wish Facebook to do well, but Facebook and Zuckerberg should start to learn a tad more about humility and modesty before the bull’s eye on their back grows to big that they become they suffer one too many head injuries.
