eMarketer projects video ads to account for $4.3B by 2010, Understanding & Solutions says it will be $10B. Both numbers seem high, but then again, by all accounts, video ads are accelerating in terms of potential.
Here’s something few people have stopped to ask. If we assume (never assume, I know) that video ads will largely come from pre-rolls, albeit less than 30 second variety, then this means we will need - at a CPM of $20 - anywhere from 215 Billion to 500 Billion Video Ads to generate $4.3B to $10B.
And… if we continue to serve 1 video ad after 3 video clips, then we’ll need 645 billion to 1.5 trillion video streams of actual content.
Who will make up the lion’s share of that content? Well, the traditional media companies would love to, but let’s face it, even at the $10B high end, that’s a pittance compared to the $75B market that TV ads represents, so count them out.
User generated content? That’s projected to be a $2.15B market by 2010… and that includes safer media like text and image, and not a drunk guy relieving himself in a beer bottle (can you just imagine the following scenario: “hey, our contextual ad engine noticed there was a bottle or Miller beer in this UGC video, so we served up an ad for Miller Beer… too bad that the person in the video was a drunkard relieving himself in, and not drinking out of, a bottle of Miller beer…”)
All to say, interesting times, once again.
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