Some time ago I ran some numbers are suggested that by 2021, Web advertising would be bigger than TV advertising. I admitted that this was an example of me running wild in Excel (yes, my life is so tantalizing). I really do think that due to economic and technical factors, TV media companies will suffer a fate as bad if not worst than print companies: shrinking revenues, eroding margins, less value. Much of that comes from what I see day in, day out running WatchMojo.com. Some TV companies will do great, most won’t. Because a lot of TV companies are more diversified than print companies, you might not see it, but inside those companies, there’s a lot of angst and envy amongst TV executives.
Anyway, this morning I see that indeed, the Web is running ahead in terms of growth, and according to Veronis Suhler Stevenson, by 2011, web advertising will surpass both TV and newspapers with $61.98B in spending.
2011? Really? That soon? That’s somewhat crazy, too aggressive, but who knows.
FT published an article, so did Mediapost.
I did some more researching, and indeed, we’re not alone in this assessment, the following is for Australia, but the trendline is interesting:
According to the study, in Australia, the compounded annual growth rate of online ad expenditure between 2005 and 2009 is 25 per cent per year, and based on current trends, the internet will surpass newspapers in 2016 and TV in 2021, effectively making online the dominant medium in 15 years time.
Pardon my language, but this is why TV companies are caught between a rock and a hard place, even though over time Web ads will become larger than TV advertising, the Web companies (YHOO, GOOG, MSFT, AOL, etc) will get the lion’s share. So not only are there far more options to spend money online, but the top of the mountain isn’t even occupied by TV firms.
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